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How to work with the scenarios WP2030?

The scenarios ‘Worker Participation 2030’ are presented in three forms, offering different ways of approaching the four worlds. Which one suits you best depends on specific purpose, time available but also personal preferences: the scenario summaries integrate the key developments and dynamics of each scenario, whereas the ‘full scenarios’ explain in more detail what happened and why. Finally, the ‘stories’ provide a more personal way of approaching the scenarios by listening to someone who lives in this future. The principal aim of the scenarios is to encourage people to join in discussions about what may come in the future, the implications of this and strategies for today to contribute to positive developments.

 

Explore

 

The first step is to explore the four ‘futures’ of worker participation 2030. What happens in the scenarios and why? What are the key differences between the scenarios? How do the actors behave? Do you consider all four scenarios plausible and likely to happen; if not: why? Which of the scenarios would you consider positive developments, which ones negative?

 

Try to find evidence for the scenarios, for example, events, trends, stories or personal anecdotes, which point to a development in the direction of scenario 1, 2, 3 or 4. Look for examples of all four scenarios. Which, in your opinion, is the scenario most likely to happen and why? Do others share your view?

 

The scenario summaries include some key questions at the end which could serve as a starting point for a discussion of each scenario.

 

You may also work with a matrix to explore the scenarios with regard to different levels and aspects. Of course, the topics compared can be adapted to the specific interests of the group.

 

 

Life goes on…

 

 

The Grid

 

 

Al(l)one

 

 

Lost cake

 

 

Key challenge(s)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Economy

 

 

 

 

 

 

Environment

 

 

 

 

 

 

Society

 

 

 

 

 

 

Technology

 

 

 

 

 

 

Politics

 

 

 

 

 

 

Values

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trade unions

 

 

 

 

 

 

Companies

 

 

 

 

 

 

EU

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adapt to national context(s)

 

The scenarios are written in such a way that they can be adapted to specific national contexts. Try to concretise the scenarios for your national context(s). How could the four scenarios take place in your country? What would be specific compared to other countries?

 

Think further

 

Of course, the scenarios can also be developed further, for example, to explore the consequences for a given industry sector or a company group. What would be the implications for your union, your (European) works council, your company? How would they behave in the different scenarios? What would you do? Where do you see important leverages?

 

Build strategies

 

Scenarios are not intended to provide immediate advice for action. However, they are extremely useful as a starting point for thinking about and discussing possible strategies in order to be prepared for different futures, both as an individual and as an organisation:

 

1) Develop a ‘strategic plan’ for your organisation: How can you prepare proactively for the implications of the different scenarios? How would you (re)act in the scenarios? How could you contribute to a positive development? How does your organisation have to change today to be well prepared? Try to prioritise the measures.

 

2) Develop a ‘success scenario’: Starting from today, develop an ambitious but achievable positive future for your organisation (or your country) for the year 2030.

 

Step 1: What would you consider a positive development by 2030? Identify several criteria for measuring success.

 

Step 2: Identify the leverage points for achieving these goals. What are the key measures needed and which actors need to be involved in what way.

 

Step 3: What obstacles have to be overcome on your way (for example, resources, time, power, conflicting interests)?

 

Step 4: Write a short story depicting your success scenario (from today to 2030), explaining what and why this development happened.

 

Step 5: Identify and prioritise measures for today.

 

Develop your own scenarios

 

Writing good scenarios is much easier than criticising them (not least because ‘long-term thinking’ wasn’t a subject at school). We certainly do not have a monopoly on writing scenarios. Scenario-building is a powerful tool for open but structured discussions on long-term perspectives and challenges. It can be adapted to very different questions, time frames and settings. If you want to know more about how to set up a scenario-building process in practice, feel free to get in touch with us.

 

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